This article was originally published on May 5, 2025 - read the full issue here

By Piers Harding-Rolls

Console gaming was all set to have a pretty stellar year in 2025. The launch of Switch 2 and the arrival of what will undoubtedly be the biggest entertainment launch of all time, Grand Theft Auto VI, were poised to drive forward the market. GTAVI's long-rumoured delay changes all that – for 2025 at least.

Ampere estimates that the delay to Rockstar's massively anticipated sequel will knock consumer spending by around $2.7 billion during the year. That's enough to cut 2025's anticipated growth for the entire global games content and services market to less than one per cent. With sector growth at a premium, a major hit to the market is less than ideal.

However, it is, of course, only a postponement of GTAVI's impact. While 2025 suffers a downgrade, games spending in 2026 is set to be boosted. One key difference is that with GTAVI arriving in May instead of towards the end of the year, there's some potential for the appetite to upgrade to PS5 and Xbox Series to be out of sync with the availability of players' disposable income as they head into the summer months. The holiday season is undoubtedly a more traditional time of year to promote the idea of a console upgrade.

As an aside, it's interesting to note that for two years running the April to June quarter will be home to the major console event of the year: Switch 2 in 2025 and GTAVI in 2026.

Why $2.7 billion?

The cultural importance and audience reach of the GTA franchise means a new release in the series has an outsized impact on the console market. This is one game that can definitely be placed in the system-seller category.

Ampere estimates that game sales volume across PS5 and Xbox Series will be negatively impacted by around 21 million units in 2025. There is little doubt that GTAVI would have sold far more than 21 million units in its first few months, but some of that spending will now go on other games. Those 21 million missing units will also all be at a top-end triple-A pricing with a high-share of spending on deluxe editions.

Beyond premium sales, in-game monetisation will also take a dip. While we don't know the full details of how extensively GTAVI will be monetised in-game, it is highly unlikely that this part of the game will take a step back from GTAV via GTA Online.

The last element of impact is on console hardware sales for both PS5 and Xbox Series. Both of these consoles are on a downward trajectory in terms of their sales lifecycle, but GTAVI has the potential to moderate this decline. Ampere has downgraded its 2025 sales forecast across these consoles by around 700,000, representing around $350 million in consumer spending. This will likely have some knock-on impact on spending on other games, as new buyers tend to be particularly active when it comes to spending on console software.

Who are the winners?

For the rest of the console industry, with no blanket coverage of GTAVI, publishers will be able to raise awareness for their new titles and compete more effectively over this year's holiday season. Some of that spend earmarked for GTAVI will be diverted to other new releases as well.

Games that will benefit from this awareness opportunity that has suddenly appeared include the regular annual franchises, such as Call Of Duty and EA Sports FC, alongside the entrenched live service titles including Fortnite, Call Of Duty: Warzone, Rocket League, Roblox and others. Such is the extent of the importance of GTAVI, this promotional headroom and improved ability to drive title awareness will extend to games launching across the double-A and triple-A spectrum. That includes PC and Switch 2 titles.

Where this ability to raise awareness will be most important is for single-player-first games, or more ad-hoc releases for established franchises that are generally better positioned now that GTAVI has been delayed. That includes Sony's forthcoming Ghost Of Yōtei and 2K's Mafia: The Old Country and Borderlands 4 but also a large roster of smaller titles across PC and console.

On a console hardware front, the delay also gives Nintendo more space to establish Switch 2 without the potential distraction of competing with the upgrade pull of GTAVI for those still on PS4 and Xbox One. There is significant audience overlap between Nintendo Switch and PlayStation or Xbox users, so there is broader competition for a share of console spending.

Finally, although Take-Two has had to change its earnings outlook and GTA fans will have to wait another six to eight months past the originally intended launch date, GTA Online is still performing very well in terms of active users and is turning over significant revenue from in-game monetisation. The chart below shows the historical monthly active users across PlayStation and Xbox illustrating its ongoing stickiness.

This article was originally published on May 5, 2025 - read the full issue here