"Manhattan Project breakthrough" on customer analysis or online PC retail expected in "one, two, three years"

By Patrick Garratt

Real competitors to Valve’s Steam are incoming, 1Up Ventures and ASGC’s Amir Satvat has told Knowledge, with new platforms set to arrive in the near future.

“A lot of people are trying to develop genuine competitors to Steam, and they're trying to develop platforms or platform plays that do that better,” he said.

According to Satvat, two main categories of tools are in the works in relation to PC game distribution: first, the “indie store play”, and, second, platforms based on social network recommendation.

The first, he noted, will likely differ from current competition: “I think it's tempting when people talk about that to immediately go to the Epic Games Store… but I don't think that's the right storyline. I think the right storyline for that is like the equivalent of the way I think of a Raw Fury or a Curve for publishing.“

The second style of potential Steam competition centres on algorithmic recommendations resulting from online peer groups: “A ‘b’ version of that Steam idea [is] in vogue, but in vogue for a reason. This idea [is] that people play what their friends recommend, and I've seen a lot of ideas within that frame also try to crack this nugget of, ‘How do we better target friend groups and really put the social in the social platform of that targeting?’”

Steam’s position as the leading online retailer for PC games isn’t the only aspect of Valve’s offering expected to be challenged, Satvat said, adding that another set of tools is in the works to help creators and publishers better understand their audience.

He cited two categories of community-analysis projects: tools such as Eden Chen's Pragma, an "inside-out" platform designed to help companies understand their own playerbase data; and external, "blinded customer profile" tools, aggregating anonymous signals from online community platforms such as Reddit or Discord to gauge who likes a game.

Work is well under way on both retail and community opposition to Steam, he said, adding that he expects public-facing results in the near future.

"Given the amount of money and the number of smart people I see working on those two big categories of things, I would be amazed if in the next one, two, three years someone doesn't have like a Manhattan Project breakthrough on one of those.”

Unofficial estimates map Steam as being currently responsible for around 75 per cent of global PC game sales online, with the Epic Games Store at around eight to ten per cent and the combination of the Microsoft Store and Game Pass at around six to eight per cent. Alinea Analytics said in July that Steam’s H1 2026 revenues had passed $11 billion, a 14.5 per cent year-on-year increase.